Incorporating Effects of Time Accrued on the Waiting List into Lung Transplantation Survival Models.

Rationale: U.S. lung transplant mortality risk models do not account for patients' disease progression as time accrues between mandated clinical parameter updates. Objectives: To investigate the effects of accrued waitlist (WL) time on mortality in lung transplant candidates and recipients beyond those expressed by worsening clinical status and to present a new framework for conceptualizing mortality risk in end-stage lung disease. Methods: Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data (2015-2020, N = 12,616), we modeled transitions among multiple clinical states over time: WL, posttransplant, and death. Using cause-specific and ordinary Cox regression to estimate trajectories of composite 1-year mortality risk as a function of time from waitlisting to transplantation, we quantified the predictive accuracy of these estimates. We compared multistate model-derived candidate rankings against composite allocation score (CAS) rankings. Measurements and Main Results: There were 11.5% of candidates whose predicted 1-year mortality risk increased by >10% by day 30 on the WL. The multistate model ascribed lower numerical rankings (i.e., higher priority) than CAS for those who died while on the WL (multistate mean; median [interquartile range] ranking at death, 227; 154 [57-334]; CAS median [interquartile range] ranking at death, 329; 162 [11-668]). Patients with interstitial lung disease were more likely to have increasing risk trajectories as a function of time accrued on the WL compared with other lung diagnoses. Conclusions: Incorporating the effects of time accrued on the WL for lung transplant candidates and recipients in donor lung allocation systems may improve the survival of patients with end-stage lung diseases on the individual and population levels.

Clinical characteristics and patient-reported outcomes of chronic and episodic migraine patients at a US tertiary headache center: A retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe differences in clinical and demographic characteristics between patients with episodic migraine (EM) or chronic migraine (CM) and determine the effect of migraine subtype on patient-reported outcome measures (PROM). BACKGROUND: Prior studies have characterized migraine in the general population. While this provides a basis for our understanding of migraine, we have less insight into the characteristics, comorbidities, and outcomes of migraine patients who present to subspecialty headache clinics. These patients represent a subset of the population that bears the greatest burden of migraine disability and are more representative of migraine patients who seek medical care. Valuable insights can be gained from a better understanding of CM and EM in this population. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of patients with CM or EM seen in the Cleveland Clinic Headache Center between January 2012 and June 2017. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and patient-reported outcome measures (3-Level European Quality of Life 5-Dimension [EQ-5D-3L], Headache Impact Test-6 [HIT-6], Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9]) were compared between groups. RESULTS: Eleven thousand thirty-seven patients who had 29,032 visits were included. More CM patients reported being on disability 517/3652 (14.2%) than EM patients 249/4881 (5.1%) and had significantly worse mean HIT-6 (67.3 ± 7.4 vs. 63.1 ± 7.4, p < 0.001) and median [interquartile range] EQ-5D-3L (0.77 [0.44-0.82] vs. 0.83 [0.77-1.00], p < 0.001), and PHQ-9 (10 [6-16] vs. 5 [2-10], p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple differences in demographic characteristics and comorbid conditions between patients with CM and EM. After adjustment for these factors, CM patients had higher PHQ-9 scores, lower quality of life scores, greater disability, and greater work restrictions/unemployment.

Multiple Sclerosis Wellness Shared Medical Appointment Model: A Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Shared medical appointments (SMAs) are group medical visits combining medical care and patient education. We examined the impact of a wellness-focused pilot SMA in a large multiple sclerosis (MS) clinic. METHODS: We reviewed data on all patients who participated in the SMA from January 2016 through June 2019. The following data were collected 12 months pre/post SMA visits: demographics, body mass index, patient-reported outcomes, and health care utilization. Data were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. RESULTS: Fifty adult patients (mean ± SD age, 50.1 ± 12.3 years) attended at least one MS wellness SMA. Most patients had private insurance (50%), and 26% had Medicaid coverage. The most common comorbidity was depression/anxiety (44%). Pre/post SMA outcomes showed a small but significant reduction in body mass index (30.2 ± 7.3 vs 28.8 ± 7.1, P = .03), and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores decreased from 7.3 ± 5.5 to 5.1 ± 5.6 (P = .001). The number of emergency department visits decreased from 13 to two (P = .0005), whereas follow-up visits increased with an attendees' primary care provider from 19 to 41 (P < .001), physical therapist from 15 to 27 (P = .004), and psychologist from six to 19 (P = .003). CONCLUSIONS: This pilot MS wellness SMA was associated with improved physical and psychological outcomes. There was increased, lower-cost health care utilization with reduced acute, high-cost health care utilization, suggesting that SMAs may be a cost-effective and beneficial method in caring for patients with MS.

Alcohol use disorder and healthcare utilization in patients with chronic asthma and obstructive lung disease.

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is associated with significant direct morbidity and mortality. The impact of alcohol on chronic asthma and obstructive lung disease is unknown. AUD treatment may represent a potential target to improve healthcare utilization and healthcare costs in this patient population. Utilizing data from the 2012-2015 Nationwide Readmissions Database (NRD) and Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), patients with a primary admission diagnosis of asthma or COPD were identified. Documented substance misuse, rates of hospitalization, frequency of hospital readmission, markers of admission severity, and cost were assessed. Within the NEDS cohort, 2,048,380 patients with a diagnosis of COPD or asthma were identified. Patients with documented AUD were more likely to present with respiratory failure [OR 1.32 (1.26, 1.39); p < 0.001] and more likely to require mechanical ventilation in the emergency room [OR 1.30 (1.19, 1.42); p < 0.001]. Within the NRD cohort, 1,096,663 hospital admissions were identified, of which 4.1% had documented AUD. AUD was associated with an increased length of stay [percentage increase estimate: 5% (4,6); p < 0.001], increased hospitalization cost, and an increased likelihood of 30-day readmission in patients with a primary admission diagnosis of COPD or asthma [OR 1.24 (1.2, 1.28); p < 0.001]. AUD is associated with increased disease morbidity and healthcare utilization in patients admitted with asthma or COPD. This impact persists after adjusting for substance misuse and associated comorbidities. Identifying and treating AUD in this patient population may improve disease, patient, and health-system outcomes.

Management of migraine in the emergency department: Findings from the 2010-2017 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to describe trends in the medical management of migraine in the emergency department (ED) using the 2010-2017 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) datasets. METHODS: Using the 2010-2017 NHAMCS datasets, we analyzed visits with a discharge diagnosis of migraine. Drug prescription frequencies between years were compared with the Rao-Scott chi-squared test. Adjusted odds ratios of opioid administration from 2010 to 2017 were calculated using weighted multivariable logistic regression with sex, age, race/ethnicity, pain-score, primary expected source of payment, and year as predictor variables. RESULTS: Our analysis captured 1846 ED visits with a diagnosis of migraine from 2010 to 2017, representing a weighted average of 1.2 million US ED visits per year. Parenteral opioids were prescribed in 49% (95% CI: 40, 58) of visits in 2010 and 28% (95% CI: 15, 45) of visits in 2017 (p = 0.03). From 2010 to 2017, there was a 10% yearly decrease in opioid prescriptions. Metoclopramide and ketorolac were prescribed more frequently in years 2015 through 2017 than in 2010. Increased opioid administration was associated with female sex, older age, white race, higher pain score, and having Medicare or private insurance as the primary expected source of payment for all years. CONCLUSION: Opioid administration for migraine in EDs across the US declined 10% annually between 2010 and 2017, demonstrating improved adherence to migraine guidelines recommending against opioids. We identified several factors associated with opioid administration for migraine, identifying groups at higher risk for unnecessary opioids in the ED setting.

A Cost-Effectiveness Framework for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, Applied to Riluzole.

OBJECTIVES: Reexamine cost-effectiveness of riluzole in the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in light of recent advances in disease staging and understanding of stage-specific drug effect. METHODS: ALS was staged according to the "fine'til 9" (FT9) staging method. Stage-specific health utilities (EQ-5D, US valuation) were estimated from an institutional cohort, whereas literature informed costs and transition probabilities. Costs at 2018 prices were disaggregated into recurring costs (RCs) and "one-off" transition/"tollgate" costs (TCs). Five- and 10-year horizons starting in stage 1 disease were examined from healthcare sector and societal perspectives using Markov models to evaluate riluzole use, at a threshold of $100 000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean EQ-5D utilities for stages 0 to 4 were 0.79, 0.74, 0.63, 0.54, and 0.46, respectively. From the healthcare sector perspective at the 5-year horizon, riluzole use contributed to 0.182 QALY gained at the cost difference of $12 348 ($5403 riluzole cost, $8870 RC and -$1925 TC differences), translating to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $67 658/QALY. Transition probability variation contributed considerably to ICER uncertainty (-30.2% to +90.0%). ICER was sensitive to drug price and RCs, whereas higher TCs modestly reduced ICER due to delayed tollgates. CONCLUSION: This study provides a framework for health economic studies of ALS treatments using FT9 staging. Prospective stage-specific and disaggregated cost measurement is warranted for accurate future cost-effectiveness analyses. Appropriate separation of TCs from RCs substantially mitigates the high burden of background cost of care on the ICER.

Cost-effectiveness of surgery for drug-resistant temporal lobe epilepsy in the US.

OBJECTIVE: Surgery is an effective but costly treatment for many patients with drug-resistant temporal lobe epilepsy (DR-TLE). We aim to evaluate whether, in the United States, surgery is cost-effective compared to medical management for patients deemed surgical candidates and whether surgical evaluation is cost-effective for patients with DR-TLE in general. METHODS: We use a semi-Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of surgery and surgical evaluation over a lifetime horizon. We use second-order Monte Carlo simulations to conduct probabilistic sensitivity analyses to estimate variation in model output. We adopt both health care and societal perspectives, including direct health care costs (e.g., surgery, antiepileptic drugs) and indirect costs (e.g., lost earnings by patients and care providers.) We compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to societal willingness to pay (∼$100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) to determine whether surgery is cost-effective. RESULTS: Epilepsy surgery is cost-effective compared to medical management in surgically eligible patients by virtue of being cost-saving ($328,000 vs $423,000) and more effective (16.6 vs 13.6 QALY) than medical management in the long run. Surgical evaluation is cost-effective in patients with DR-TLE even if the probability of being deemed a surgical candidate is only 5%. From a societal perspective, surgery becomes cost-effective within 3 years, and 89% of simulations favor surgery over the lifetime horizon. CONCLUSION: For surgically eligible patients with DR-TLE, surgery is cost-effective. For patients with DR-TLE in general, referral for surgical evaluation (and possible subsequent surgery) is cost-effective. Patients with DR-TLE should be referred for surgical evaluation without hesitation on cost-effectiveness grounds.

Economic Evaluation Studies.

Economic evaluations, including cost-effectiveness analyses, are frameworks for decision-making. They help to illustrate tradeoffs between selecting one choice over another. This form of analysis is of great power and value to the health-care system. Health-care decisions are complex; they require synthesis of a myriad of data variables and sources, and the impact of the choices made is significant. Given this importance and the increasing demand and complexity of health decisions, it is imperative to ensure that economic evaluations are of high quality, comprehensive, and follow the guidelines and recommendations of experts in the field. This article provides an overview of the types of economic evaluations and their role in decision-making. It also discusses key study design considerations, including methods, scope, results, and reporting. Links to published checklists are provided along with additional sources of information, including a glossary of terms (Appendix), to guide the researcher to produce high-quality economic evaluations and guide the reviewer to provide high-quality feedback during the review process.

Application of Unit-Level Cost Transparency, Education, Enhanced Audit, and Feedback of Anonymized Peer Ranking to Promote Judicious Use of 25% Albumin in Critical Care Units.

Objective: Hyperoncotic 25% albumin is widely used for fluid resuscitation in intensive care units. However, this practice remains controversial. By 2012 in our intensive care unit, annual 25% albumin expenditures had steadily increased to exceed $1 million. This prompted efforts to promote more judicious use. Design: Prospective time series cohort analysis using statistical process control charts. Setting: Seventy-six-bed quaternary level cardiovascular surgical intensive care unit (CVICU), organized into 6 adjacent units. Patients: Adult cardiac, thoracic, and vascular surgery patients admitted postoperatively to the CVICU during the study period. Interventions: Over 12 months starting March 2013, we sequentially implemented unit-level 25% albumin cost transparency, provider education, and individualized audit and feedback of anonymized peer ranking of albumin prescriptions. Measurements and Main Results: C control charts were used for analysis of monthly unit-level direct albumin costs for 20 months. Balance measures including red cell transfusions, number of diagnoses of pleural effusions, and length of stay were also tracked. Monthly average albumin expenditures had decreased 61% by December 2014, and there was no evidence of adverse changes in any of the balance measures. These reductions have been sustained. Conclusion: Sequential implementation of multimodal strategies can alter clinician practices to achieve substantial unit-level reduction in 25% albumin utilization without harm to patients.

A Technology-Enabled Concussion Care Pathway Reduces Costs and Enhances Care.

BACKGROUND: The standardization of care along disease lines is recommended to improve outcomes and reduce health care costs. The multiple disciplines involved in concussion management often result in fragmented and disparate care. A fundamental gap exists in the effective utilization of rehabilitation services for individuals with concussion. PURPOSE: The purpose of this project was to (1) characterize changes in health care utilization following implementation of a concussion carepath, and (2) present an economic evaluation of patient charges following carepath implementation. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. METHODS: A review of electronic medical and financial records was conducted of individuals (N = 3937), ages 18 to 45 years, with primary diagnosis of concussion who sought care in the outpatient or emergency department settings over a 7-year period (2010-2016). Outcomes including encounter length, resource utilization, and charges were compared for each year to determine changes from pre- to post-carepath implementation. RESULTS: Concussion volumes increased by 385% from 2010 to 2015. Utilization of physical therapy increased from 9% to 20% while time to referral decreased from 72 to 23 days post-injury. Utilization of emergency medicine and imaging were significantly reduced. Efficient resource utilization led to a 20.7% decrease in median charges (estimated ratio of means [CI] 7.72 [0.53, 0.96]) associated with concussion care. LIMITATIONS: Encounter lengths served as a proxy for recovery time. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the concussion carepath was successful in optimizing clinical practice with respect to facilitating continuity of care, appropriate resource utilization, and effective handoffs to physical therapy. The utilization of enabling technology to facilitate the collection of common outcomes across providers was vital to the success of standardizing clinical care without compromising patient outcomes.

The cost-effectiveness of epidural, patient-controlled intravenous opioid analgesia, or transversus abdominis plane infiltration with liposomal bupivacaine for postoperative pain management.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Intravenous patient-controlled opioid analgesia (IVPCA), epidural analgesia and transversus abdominis plane (TAP) infiltrations are frequently used postoperative pain management modalities. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the use of epidural, IVPCA, and TAP infiltrations with liposomal bupivacaine for analgesia in the first 72 h postoperatively in patients undergoing major lower abdominal surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective cost effectiveness analysis. SETTING: Operating room. PATIENTS: We obtained data on major lower-abdominal surgeries performed under general anesthesia on adult patients between January 2012 and July 2014. INTERVENTIONS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was comparing the use of epidural, IVPCA, and TAP infiltrations with liposomal bupivacaine for analgesia in the first 72 h postoperatively. MEASUREMENTS: A decision analytic model was used to estimate the health outcomes for patients undergoing major lower abdominal surgery. The primary outcome was time-weighted pain from 0 to 72 h after surgery, as measured by numerical rating scale pain scores. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the hospital as the party responsible for most costs related to surgery. MAIN RESULTS: From the base case analysis, IVPCA was the optimal strategy regarding cost and effect. TAP with LB, however, was only narrowly dominated, while epidural was clearly dominated. From the sensitivity analysis at willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $150, IV PCA and TAP infiltration were each the optimal strategy for approximately 50% of the iterations. At WTP of $10,000, epidural was only the optimal strategy in 10% of the iterations. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study in the literature to compare the cost-effectiveness of epidural, IVPCA, and TAP infiltrations with LB. Within reasonable WTP values, there is little differentiation in cost-effectiveness between IVPCA and TAP infiltration with LB. Epidural does not become a cost-effective strategy even at much higher WTP values.

Cost-Consequence Analysis of Mobile Stroke Units vs. Standard Prehospital Care and Transport.

Background: Mobile stroke units (MSUs) are the latest approach to improving time-sensitive stroke care delivery. Currently, there are no published studies looking at the expanded value of the MSU to diagnose and transport patients to the closest most appropriate facility. The purpose of this paper is to perform a cost consequence analysis of standard transport (ST) vs. MSU. Methods and Results: A cost consequence analysis was undertaken within a decision framework to compare the incremental cost of care for patients with confirmed stroke that were served by the MSU vs. their simulated care had they been served by standard emergency medical services between July 2014 and October 2015. At baseline values, the incremental cost between MSU and ST was $70,613 ($856,482 vs. $785,869) for 355 patient transports. The MSU avoided 76 secondary interhospital transfers and 76 emergency department (ED) encounters. Sensitivity analysis identified six variables that had measurable impact on the model's variability and a threshold value at which MSU becomes the optimal strategy: number of stroke patients (>391), probability of requiring transfer to a comprehensive stroke center (CSC, >0.52), annual cost of MSU operations (<$696,053), cost of air transfer (>$8,841), probability initial receiving hospital is a CSC (<0.32), and probability of ischemic stroke with ST (<0.76). Conclusions: MSUs can avert significant costs in the administration of stroke care once optimal thresholds are achieved. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis is required to determine not just the operational value of an MSU but also its clinical value to patients and the society.

Acute kidney injury in postoperative shock: is hyperoncotic albumin administration an unrecognized resuscitation risk factor?

BACKGROUND: The use of hyperoncotic albumin (HA) for shock resuscitation is controversial given concerns about its cost, effectiveness, and potential for nephrotoxicity. We evaluated the association between early exposure to hyperoncotic albumin (within the first 48 h of onset of shock) and acute organ dysfunction in post-surgical patients with shock. METHODS: This retrospective, cohort study included 11,512 perioperative patients with shock from 2009 to 2012. Shock was defined as requirement for vasopressors to maintain adequate mean arterial pressure and/or elevated lactate (> 2.2 mmol/L). Subsets of 3600 were selected after propensity score and exact matching on demographics, comorbidities, and treatment variables (> 30). There was a preponderance of cardiac surgery patients. Proportional odds logistic regression, multivariable logistic regression or Cox proportional hazard regression models measured association between hyperoncotic albumin and acute kidney injury (AKI), hepatic injury, ICU days, and mortality. RESULTS: Hyperoncotic albumin-exposed patients showed greater risk of acute kidney injury compared to controls (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04, 1.17. P = 0.002), after adjusting for imbalanced co-variables. Within matched patients, 20.3%, 2.9%, and 4.4% of HA patients experienced KDIGO stages 1-3 AKI, versus 19.6%, 2.5%, and 3.0% of controls. There was no difference in hepatic injury (OR 1.16; 98.3% CI 0.85, 1.58); ICU days, (HR 1.05; 98.3% CI 1.00, 1.11); or mortality, (OR 0.88; 98.3% CI 0.64, 1.20). CONCLUSIONS: Early exposure to hyperoncotic albumin in postoperative shock appeared to be associated with acute kidney injury. There did not appear to be any association with hepatic injury, mortality, or ICU days. The clinical and economic implications of this finding warrant further investigation.

The Association Between Lung Recipient Travel Distance and Posttransplant Survival.

INTRODUCTION: Recipient travel distance may be an unrecognized burden in lung transplantation. DESIGN: Retrospective single-center cohort study of all adult (≥18 years) first-time lung-only transplants from January 1, 2010, until February 28, 2017. Recipient distance to transplant center was calculated using the linear distance from the recipient's home zip code to the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio. RESULTS: 569 recipients met inclusion criteria. Posttransplant graft survival was 85%, 88%, 91%, and 91% at 1 year and 49%, 52%, 57%, and 56% at 5 years posttransplant for recipient travel distances of ≤50, >50 to ≤250, >250 to ≤500, and >500 miles, respectively ( P = .10). DISCUSSION: We found no significant relationship between recipient travel distance and posttransplant graft survival. In carefully selected recipients, travel distance is not a significant barrier to successful posttransplant outcomes which may be important for patient decision-making and donor allocation policy. These data should be validated in a national cohort.

Impact of Age and Sex on Outcomes and Hospital Cost of Acute Asthma in the United States, 2011-2012.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, asthma is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and economic burden, with significant gender and racial disparities. However, little attention has been given to the independent role of age on lifetime asthma severity and hospitalization. We aimed to assess the effect of age, gender, race and ethnicity on indicators of asthma severity including asthma related hospitalization, mortality, hospital cost, and the rate of respiratory failure. METHODS: We analyzed the 2011 and 2012 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project- National Inpatient Sample (NIS). We validated and extended those results using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-Severe Asthma Research Program (SARP; 2002-2011) database. Severe asthma was prospectively defined using the stringent American Thoracic Society (ATS) definition. RESULTS: Hospitalization for asthma was reported in 372,685 encounters in 2012 and 368,528 in 2011. The yearly aggregate cost exceeded $2 billion. There were distinct bimodal distributions for hospitalization age, with an initial peak at 5 years and a second at 50 years. Likewise, this bimodal age distribution of patients with severe asthma was identified using SARP. Males comprised the majority of individuals in the first peak, but women in the second. Aggregate hospital cost mirrored the bimodal peak distribution. The probability of respiratory failure increased with age until the age of 60, after which it continued to increase in men, but not in women. CONCLUSIONS: Severe asthma is primarily a disease of young boys and middle age women. Greater understanding of the biology of lung aging and influence of sex hormones will allow us to plan for targeted interventions during these times in order to reduce the personal and societal burdens of asthma.

Estimating the number of difficult airway carts needed in an operating suite: Resource planning without compromising patient safety.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the number of difficult airway (DA) carts required based on the number of anesthetising locations and patients risk of DA. DESIGN: Binomial distributions. SETTING AND PATIENTS: Various hypothetical settings and patient cohorts. INTERVENTIONS AND MEASUREMENTS: Binomial distributions were used to calculate the number of distinct combinations of DAs by number of anesthetising locations assuming an average risk of 10%. The 'at least' number of DAs was calculated using cumulative probabilities of having exactly two plus more than 2 DAs up to the total number of simultaneously started anesthetising locations or until the cumulative probability exceeds the 50% threshold, therefore being more likely than not. MAIN RESULTS: The probability of encountering concurrent DAs increases as the number of simultaneously started anesthetising locations increases. For at least 2 concurrent DAs, the probability first exceeds 50% at 17 locations. The corresponding thresholds for at least 3 and 4 concurrent DAs, are 27 and 37 locations respectively. The probability of at least 2 concurrent DAs will exceed 50% when approximately 17 anesthetising sites are started simultaneously and a 10% worst case risk is assumed. CONCLUSIONS: With continuing resource constraints, proper planning of human and capital resources for DAs needs to be addressed without compromising patient safety. It is recommended that every block of 15-20 sites be equipped with a DA cart, that anaesthesia groups develop and rehearse DA algorithms with available equipment, and that preoperative anaesthesia clinics be used to identify DA therefore providing logistical leverage.

Practice Variation Among Hospitals in Revascularization Therapy and Its Association With Procedure-related Mortality.

BACKGROUND: While substantial practice variation in coronary revascularization has been described and deviation from clinical practice guidelines has been associated with worse outcomes, the degree to which this is driven by flawed decision making and/or appropriate deviation associated with comorbid conditions is unknown. We evaluated heterogeneity in procedure use, and the extent to which hospital-level practice variation is related to surgical mortality. METHODS: We analyzed data on 554,563 inpatients undergoing either percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting at 391 centers in 6 states. Procedure-specific risk models were developed based on demographics and comorbidities, allowing for differential effects of comorbidities for each sex. For each patient, the revascularization procedure that minimized predicted probability of inhospital mortality was designated as the model-preferred procedure.Hospital-level discordance rates-the proportion of cases in each hospital for which the opposite from the model-preferred procedure was performed-were calculated. Hierarchical linear models were used to analyze the relationship between HDRs and hospital-level risk-standardized mortality ratios (RSMRs). RESULTS: Comorbidities and demographics alone explained between 68% and 86% of overall variation in inhospital mortality (corresponding C-statistics of 0.84-0.93). The mean (SD) HDR was 26.3% (9.6%). There was a positive independent association between HDRs and inhospital mortality, with a 10% increase in HDR associated with an 11% increase in RSMR (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Variance in procedure use according to model preference was strongly associated with worse outcomes. A systematic approach to incorporating comorbidity as part of the decision-making process for coronary revascularization is needed.

Cost effectiveness of bronchial thermoplasty in patients with severe uncontrolled asthma.

RATIONALE: Based on its clinical effectiveness, bronchial thermoplasty (BT) was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2010 for the treatment of severe persistent asthma in patients 18 years and older whose asthma is not well-controlled with inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting beta-agonist medicines. OBJECTIVE: Assess the 10 year cost-effectiveness of BT for individuals with severe uncontrolled asthma. METHODS: Using a Markov decision analytic model, the cost-effectiveness of BT was estimated. The patient population involved a hypothetical cohort of 41-year-old patients comparing BT to usual care over a 10-year time frame. The main outcome measure was cost in 2013 dollars per additional quality adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: Treatment with BT resulted in 6.40 QALYs and $7512 in cost compared to 6.21 QALYs and $2054 for usual care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for BT at 10 years was $29,821/QALY. At a willingness to pay per QALY of $50,000, BT continues to be cost effective unless the probability of severe asthma exacerbation drops below 0.63 exacerbation per year or the cost of BT rises above $10,384 total for all three bronchoscopic procedures needed to perform thermoplasty and to cover the entire bronchial tree (baseline = $6690). CONCLUSIONS: BT is a cost-effective treatment for asthmatics at high risk of exacerbations. Continuing to follow asthmatics treated with BT beyond 5 years will help inform longer efficacy and support its cost-effectiveness.

Validation and Extension of the Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic Model (ProVent) Score for Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation.

RATIONALE: Prognostic models can inform management decisions for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. The Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic model (ProVent) score was developed to predict 1-year mortality in these patients. External evaluation of such models is needed before they are adopted for routine use. OBJECTIVES: The goal was to perform an independent external validation of the modified ProVent score and assess for spectrum extension at 14 days of mechanical ventilation. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis of patients who received prolonged mechanical ventilation at the University of Iowa Hospitals. Patients who received 14 or more days of mechanical ventilation were identified from a database. Manual review of their medical records was performed to abstract relevant data including the four model variables at Days 14 and 21 of mechanical ventilation. Vital status at 1 year was checked in the medical records or the social security death index. Logistic regressions examined the associations between the different variables and mortality. Model performance at 14 to 20 days and 21+ days was assessed for discrimination by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 180 patients (21+ d) and 218 patients (14-20 d) were included. Overall, 75% were surgical patients. One-year mortality was 51% for 21+ days and 32% for 14 to 20 days of mechanical ventilation. Age greater than 65 years was the strongest predictor of mortality at 1 year in all cohorts. There was no significant difference between predicted and observed mortality rates for patients stratified by ProVent score. There was near-perfect specificity for mortality in the groups with higher ProVent scores. Areas under the curve were 0.69 and 0.75 for the 21+ days and the 14 to 20 days cohorts respectively. P values for the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics were 0.24 for 21+ days and 0.22 for 14 to 20 days. CONCLUSIONS: The modified ProVent model was accurate in our cohort. This supports its geographic and temporal generalizability. It can also accurately identify patients at risk of 1-year mortality at Day 14 of mechanical ventilation, but additional confirmation is required. Further studies should explore the implications of adopting the model into routine use.

The 2-year cost-effectiveness of 3 options to treat lumbar spinal stenosis patients.

Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) may result from degenerative changes of the spine, which lead to neural ischemia, neurogenic claudication, and a significant decrease in quality of life. Treatments for LSS range from conservative management including epidural steroid injections (ESI) to laminectomy surgery. Treatments vary greatly in cost and success. ESI is the least costly treatment may be successful for early stages of LSS but often must be repeated frequently. Laminectomy surgery is more costly and has higher complication rates. Minimally invasive lumbar decompression (mild(®) ) is an alternative. Using a decision-analytic model from the Medicare perspective, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing mild(®) to ESI or laminectomy surgery. The analysis population included patients with LSS who have moderate to severe symptoms and have failed conservative therapy. Costs included initial procedure, complications, and repeat/revision or alternate procedure after failure. Effects measured as change in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) from preprocedure to 2 years postprocedure. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were determined, and sensitivity analysis conducted. The mild(®) strategy appears to be the most cost-effective ($43,760/QALY), with ESI the next best alternative at an additional $37,758/QALY. Laminectomy surgery was the least cost-effective ($125,985/QALY).